For years, the words 'steel trade' were virtually synonymous in industry circles with wave after wave of cheap imports and expensive and time-consuming anti-dumping and countervailing duty filings to stop them.  The trade suits keep coming, but for the first time in a long time a combination of factors—not the least of which is a weak dollar—have strengthened the prospects of the export market.

A weak U.S. dollar, globally competitive prices and growing foreign economies are expected to help boost U.S. steel exports in the long term, but the mounting increases in hot-rolled prices could put a dent in export profits and potential in the short term.

"Our members look upon exports as a sales opportunity, especially as U.S. mini-mills are recognized as low-cost, globally competitive, quality producers," said Thomas A. Danjczek, president of the Steel Manufacturers Association (SMA), the Washington-based trade group representing electric furnace producers. "Driven by currency, scrap prices, electrical rates, labor efficiency and transportation, U.S. costs are lower than in other places in the world. And it is all about cost because of global overcapacity."

The spoiler in this promising exports scenario, of course, is rising hot-rolled coil prices. "If U.S. prices were to stay where...