Throughout the past year and a half, I've tried to present some unified themes on the steel business and relate my three decades of experience into some type of cohesive advice column for the people I work with in the sector. There have been messages to all of you in the columns, some congratulatory and some chiding, but always with an eye toward applying the lessons learned in the past.

As we sit on the seeming precipice of yet another new world order—one either dominated by wrenching contraction or perhaps just a lull in the emerging market juggernaut—I feel that in some respects we've been here before.

In particular, we're seeing China emerging yet again at center stage—in many respects as a seeming microcosm of many of the global steel industries. The Chinese steel industry today resonates the American experience, and there are immediate parallels that can be drawn, lessons learned and pain ultimately to be avoided.

China today has 40 percent...